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Empirical Risk Management

Webinar held on 6 December 2022

Recording of the webinar
Presentation

This presentation will focuses on decision risk – the chance and cost of being wrong, where wrong is another course of action we would have taken, if we could have.
It introduces some of the fieldwork Rohan has done over the last seven years or so across multiple public sector verticals, plus the work he’s been doing around AI risk. Areas covered include:
  • why programme managers have a tough time turning information around (literally);
  • the Flaw of Averages, a hidden decision flaw;
  • how I add Monte Carlo up front with my forward estimation
  • the difference between forward probabilities and inverse probabilities
  • the causal diagramming I’m doing to identify broad types of risk to health project
  • what is driving AI risk and what can be done to mitigate it

 

About the presenter:

Rohan Light

I entered risk work in 2009 with Inland Revenue’s recovery and enforcement teams – I specialised in recovering funds from groups of companies and conducting evidential interviews. I got my first enterprise-level risk and assurance Senior Advisor role in 2011. I took a risk management specialisation in enterprise portfolio management in 2013 and specialised in the likelihood side of risk management in 2014. I picked up technology projects early on and have kept active in technology risk since then.

I concluded my Inland Revenue career with two years in the change project, programme and portfolio management (P3M) area, before leaving to do work in risk-based methods associated to digital and data across different public sector verticals – statistics, social protection, education, employment, dispute resolution and, since 2021, public health. By this time, I’ve picked up skills in human centred design, enterprise analytics and data governance.

I’ve worked in a wide range of enterprise-level data governance, strategy and risk problems, such as re-identification risk, responsible information use and digital regulation of online labour. During this time, I also worked on NZ Alpine Club and NZ Search and Rescue risk management problems. I am currently working on developing AI audit+ethics protocols with the charity ForHumanity.

My professional credentials are grounded in the Management of Portfolios Practitioner (AXELOS), Governance Risk and Compliance Practitioner (OCEG), Certified Change Practitioner (PROSCI) and Certified Auditory – UK GDPR (ForHumanity). In 2023 I’m planning for my Corporate Governance of Enterprise IT (ISACA). I am a Fellow with the UK Royal Society for Arts, Manufacture and Commerce.